kowenicki said:
Reasonable said:
Darth Tigris said:
Still don't understand about sales slowing significantly after the holidays. Has that ever happened before with a hot product that people are enjoying like this???
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It would be unheard of for a consumer electronics device to not slow a little after the holidays. Think about it, you've got normal demand plus gift demand across the holidays - that's a huge spike normally particularly for consumer electronics.
After the holidays people buying it as a gift should disappear and it should drop down to normal demand. Plus, people tend to overspend in the run up to the holidays then we see a frugal Jan/Feb for electronic devices (I mean in general of course).
Now, sometimes something becomes so hot, and supply constrained, during the holidays that demand continues at very high levels for a while after the holidays, but its very rare.
Demand for Kinect should almost definately drop. If it doesn't, then Kinect will be really hot. If it drops by normal percentages then all's still fine just Kinect is behaving in line with most electronics.
The question is will it be significant or not? Depends on your view of what significant means. Most electronics see a fairly big dip post holidays and that's considered normal. I think given the launch right before the holidays it'll be a while before we can tell what significant means for Kinect and what is normal thought.
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it will drop for sure... no question
as you say the only question is by how much.
However, it seems clear it isnt going to simply stop after a while (as some very odd people have suggested)... it just doesnt have that feel to it.
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I think outside US a standard drop is fairly likely... in US, after the numbers for 360/Kinect... it'll drop, but it might be less that I would have thought originally for a device with that price point. I think it might hold some extra momentum in US for a while.
