Seece said:
scottie said:
The revenue breakdown must go somewhat similar to the following
Per unit kinect
Better material attach rate for the 45 million Xbox installed base $150
Higher adoption and market share gain for the console itself Assuming 20% of those buying Kinect are new owners $300 * 0.2 = 60
An uptick from the sale of new titles = $40 * 5 ($40 average game price and 5 games per kinect) = 200
Lower attrition and higher gross new subscriber growth for Xbox Live users let say kinect keeps half its install base on Live for one year longer, which is $60 per year afaik so that's $30.
So each kinect nets a total of $440 revenue.
$2 billion / $440 = 4.55 million unit sales.
Well, unless my maths is wrong anywhere, then I think the only conlusion I can draw is that these people are talking about this year only, they started with the 5 million sales figure and worked out how much people would be spending on each one to get 2 billion
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It's vauge I agree, Kinect drove up 50% new purchasers in Nov NPD though.
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Yeah, when I originally wrote the post I was doing all my approximations on the assumption that this was end of life predictions, when that turned out not to be feasible I should have changed things.
If we're taking your 50% figure instead other 20% I pulled out my arse we get an extra $90 per console. However, my estimate of 5 non bundled games per kinect looks a bit silly if we're simply talking about 2010 calendar year revenue. Drop it to two $40 games and we get 4.9 million units of kinect sold, so I still feel confident that they are talking 2010
