| Killiana1a said: I think the original post is fairly solid because the recent past with the PS1 and PS2 have shown that timing in releasing consoles 18 months ahead or more of the competition translates into a higher market share (particularly in the US where newness and novelty is fairly important). The PS1 released in 1994 squashed the Nintendo 64 (released in 1996) and Sega Dreamcast (released in 1998). The PS2 dominated both the Gamecube, mainly because the PS2 was the cheapest DVD player on the market as the world was transitioning from VHS to DVD in the late 1990s and early 2000s, and Xbox. Essentially, PS2 was not 18 months or more ahead literally, but what it was years ahead of compared to the Gamecube and Xbox was taking advantage of the new media format before it's competitors. This timing of using the new media format (Blu Ray) with the PS3 turned out to be a freaking flop for the PS3. Why? Digital download which was popularized by Napster was already on the scene and competing with Blu Ray by 2006. There was no third format between the VHS and DVD, however there was between the DVD and Blu Ray. I have not heard anything of the Xbox 360 successor, so I cannot comment on the direction Microsoft is taking. However, once Kinect has been out a year, the picture will be much clearer. I speculate that Microsoft may release the first direct download only console where all new games are made available via Live for a $30-50 price tag (depending on anticipation and development costs). If the PS3 is any indication, we can all expect Sony to release the PS4 last with it being the most powerful system, most expensive to create, and thus the most expensive at retail. Will it have a $600 entry level price like the PS3 did in 2006? I don't think so, but if it is over $300 then it may struggle to compete as we all know Nintendo will do their best to set the tone of the latest generation by releasing the Wii 2 first at a price around $200. I think Nintendo is in an excellent position. However, the one thing nagging at me is that Nintendo is no longer at the bottom of the barrel like they were with the Nintendo 64 and Gamecube. Undisputably, Nintendo is the top dog or "The Man" this generation. The question I ask is, "Being on top this generation, will Nintendo still have that chip on their shoulder come Wii 2 or has the success of the Wii made Nintendo so self confident to the point of arrogance where they take the Blue Ocean for granted, let Kinect and Move encroach on their Blue Ocean, and fail to go after the core customer base of Sony and Microsoft?" |
I think it´s still too soon for that...the rate of people who have high speed internet that would download a full 720 game without taking too long still isn´t high enough to justify, like you said, the first direct download only console in the next 2-3 years.
Maybe when we´re talking about the 720´s successor..but not the 360´s successor, that´s what I think.
