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Mummelmann said:

Michael Pachter? Seriously? Don't use him as a ref on things, he's mostly full of hot air and guesses.

I still maintain that I find it highly unlikely that Kinect will sell 20 million units worldwide, Pachter be damned. He's the John Lucas of analysts.

20 million is a foregone conclusion at this point.  the real question is can it get to 35 or so.