Desroko said:
I sincerely doubt that he places higher than third. Momentum is too important - Howard Dean was leading in NH four years ago until he lost big in Iowa.
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Except for one poll (which had Kerry winning by 1% or so), Dean was expected to win Iowa, and he came in third by almost 20 points. He then followed it up with the infamous "I Have a Scream" speech which (unfairly I think) made a mockery of him. In the case of McCain, just a month ago he was near the cellar in Iowa, hovering around 6-7%. He hadn't been as high as 13% since July. Given that he rose back to that level in so little time while spending next to none of his resources there, it is hard not to credit him with a positive result.