Farmageddon on 03 December 2010
| alekth said: I think with boxes you can explain it like that: Pick your box - you can keep this box OR you can instead take all the other boxes. |
This is a good analogy.
If you decide beforehand to keep your door, you're essentially negating all the rest of the problem (since it'll make no difference) adn will have the same odds of winning as you had of picking it right at first.
Now, if you decide beforehand to switch, you'll win as long as you don't pick the winning door at first. So your odds are complementary to those of picking it right at first.
It's the chance of the one you choose being right against the chance of any other one being right.
