Soleron on 03 December 2010
| LuisPacheco said: Hi, first let me start by reintroducing myself. I'm the poster formerly known as LuStaysTru. Lost my password.....I came back just for this lol Well anyways, I believe this to be what is called the "Gambler's Fallcy". The odds in fact do not change. |
You said earlier that the host deliberately opens a goat door. So, since {chance car was behind two doors you didn't pick before} was 2/3, it stays at 2/3, because the host wouldn't reveal the car door if it was there.
The chance it's your door stays at 1/3. The chance it's one of the other two doors is still 2/3, except that you only have one choice of door there. Think of it as a choice between your door OR every other door.
