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atma998 on 28 November 2010
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Mummelmann said:
atma998 said:
CGI-Quality said:
atma998 said:

lol

ok so the game will sell as much in 2012 than in 2011? How come? And it will sell more in its second and 3rd year than CoD:MW2? Come on... this isnt serious.

How did you draw that conclusion?

In 2010, it'll sell 4 million = 4 million.

In 2011, it'll sell 3 million = 7 million.

In 2012, it'll sell 2 million (give or take) = 9 million

In 2013, it'll sell 1 million (give or take) = 10 million.

Now, how did your maths deceive you? And............. CoD will have a larger drop off due to annual releases (unlike GT5, which likely be the only full GT on the system).


Well a drop of only 1 million between 2011 and 2012 sounds like wishful thinking to me, as much as thinking it will outsell CoD:MW2 second and 3rd year. And what makes you think Sony won't release a GT6 this gen? PR talks?

Reality is that CoD is far more popular than GT as a franchise so there is no chance GT5 will outsell its second year, especially when we are looking at racing sim games legs. 

GT games have the craziest legs I've ever seen, GT3 was in the Norwegian top 20 for three years and top ten for almost two years running. Games like Modern Warfare 2 are heavily frontloaded and pre-ordered with their 500 million dollar advertising budgets and this series gets a new game every single year (that's why they have two studios working on the series, so they output one game every single year). I would also suggest to wait before more racing sims are released on the PS3 to judge how they do, since there aren't exactly a whole lot of them available (In fact; there are only two and one isn't even a full game but more of a demo/trial version). As far as I can see, the only shooters that have outsold GT5:P are three Call of Duty game so your terrific logic of Shooters>>>>>>>>>>>>>Racing Sims is flawed at best and plain silly cherrypicking at worst.

Mario Kart has outsold everything this side of wheat bread, this must surely mean as a rule of thumb that Gokart Games>>>>>>>>>>>All Other Games, always. Wii Fit sitting at 20 million means Fitness Games>>>>>>>>>>>All Other Games Besides Gokart Games. See how this becomes rather silly when the scope is broadened somewhat?

I'm not saying your lifetime prediction is impossible, I'm saying that it is unlikely and it would seem that you have a very poor grasp of how game sales truly work, its not simply black and white.

So based on your logic there is no genre more popular than other. Shooter, racing sim, 2D platformer, 3D platformer, RPG, puzzle game and kart games are all equally popular.

We are trying to analyze the sales trend and we are basing our predictions with past sales of other games in the same genre. I don't see what is wrong in my pedictions considering userbase, competition, most popular franchise sales on PS3, racing sim genre this gen, launch sales of GT5, etc. But indeed it's more easy to just deny what others are predicting without taking all that into consideration and taking instead a norwegian chart of a past GT released on PS2...

Unlike you, I have explained my prediction and I think it's a very reasonnable one. I know there is a lot of PS3 fans here that doesnt want to admit it, so in the end I will repeat what I said in my first post:

It will takes more than a year before people predicting 10M (and more) sales may admit the true potential of this game.