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Depends if you're talking about mainstream success.  I've always been of the mindset that Blu Ray would find success, but not mainstream success.  It has.  Digital seems to be growing in leaps and bounds every year because people love the EASE and CONVENIENCE of it all (for the most part).

It's hard to say how you can analyze the two and say one was right and one was wrong.  As others have said, that's just too black and white.

But for GAMING purposes, Blu Ray has failed to prove itself as a financially viable endeavor.  It just hasn't given PS3 games enough of an advantage to justify it's cost.