Blu-ray will be a success because it will last through to the next gen of consoles by which time it will be close to dominating DVD in the movie/TV series space. If Sony elect to use Blu-ray again for PS4 that will be the first time Sony will have kept with the same storage medium for 2 console generations; which woukld suggest a lot of confidence in Blu-ray having good longevity.
If Sony were to go DD only for PS4 then that would not represent a fail for Blu-ray. If Sony went for another new disc format it wouldn't be a fail for Blu-ray. Both those scenarios would simply be Sony acting to type in bringing a different storage medium with each succeeding console.
Personally I see Sony sticking with Blu-ray for PS4. I don't see DD taking over completely next gen, but it may do the generation after.
Pachter says there's no way MS will go Blu-ray. So with current options MS are either going to be DD only or stick with DVD. Though perhaps MS could go the Onlive model, it does seem like a bit of a natural progression for XBL.
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