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Desroko on 03 January 2008
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damkira said:
Desroko said:
Vilsack, a Clinton supporter, just downplayed the results, saying that Hillary "has already accomplished what she set out to do," which tells me that he knows she's not likely to finish to first and is trying to manage expectations. If she doesn't win NH, she's finished. If Edwards wins Iowa she could posibly bounce back, but not if Obama takes first.

Paul, again, is not a serious threat to any of the top five GOP candidates. He might not make double-digits, let alone third-place.

I see the Dems as Obama, Edwards, Clinton, all very close. For the GOP, Huckabee, Romney, McCain.

If Obama does win, it's very likely that he'll win NH and then dominate Feb. 5. If Huckabee wins, I'm not so sure that it'll carry through. His sort of conservatism doesn't play well in New England, plus the Wall Street Republicans and the GOP foreign-policy establishment hate his guts. If he can remain viable until Super Tuesday, the Southern-heavy slate will probably favor him, but I think Romney will win the nomination in the end.

 I agree that its likely Clinton won't win Iowa but that doesn't mean she's finished. She has a huge lead nationally and is by far the best-known of any candidate in either party. She is in the best position to sustain a defeat in the Iowa cacuses and remain standing, although it is very possible she will lose her lead in other states. Remember that New Hampshire, Michigan, Nevada, South Carolina and Florida all have primaries this month, followed by 22 states on Feb. 5th. Clinton is far from done. 


I actually said that Clinton has to win NH to remain in the race. If she doesn't get first there, Obama (the likely benefactor) will likely steam-roll through Feb. 5. I agree that she can lose today and still win the nomination, but only if she places a close second to Edwards. If Obama comes in first, she's finished. If she comes in third, she's finished. If Edwards, unlikely as it seems, wins by a large margin, he may actually win NH himself.

If Huckabee win today (I think he will) that's a blow to Romney, but I expect McCain to finish far enough below the other two that he accrues little benefit, and a weakened Romney wins NH almost by default. This is followed by easy victories in Michigan (his father was a popular governor there, and it's now a closed primary, which means no indies to vote for McCain) and Nevada, which has the second-highest proportion of Mormons in the country.

If that doesn't happen, the second most likely scenario is as you said: McCain wins NH, and Michigan becomes a free-for-all. I don't know who would win that, but they would go on to win the nomination.