| Desroko said: Vilsack, a Clinton supporter, just downplayed the results, saying that Hillary "has already accomplished what she set out to do," which tells me that he knows she's not likely to finish to first and is trying to manage expectations. If she doesn't win NH, she's finished. If Edwards wins Iowa she could posibly bounce back, but not if Obama takes first. Paul, again, is not a serious threat to any of the top five GOP candidates. He might not make double-digits, let alone third-place. I see the Dems as Obama, Edwards, Clinton, all very close. For the GOP, Huckabee, Romney, McCain. If Obama does win, it's very likely that he'll win NH and then dominate Feb. 5. If Huckabee wins, I'm not so sure that it'll carry through. His sort of conservatism doesn't play well in New England, plus the Wall Street Republicans and the GOP foreign-policy establishment hate his guts. If he can remain viable until Super Tuesday, the Southern-heavy slate will probably favor him, but I think Romney will win the nomination in the end. |
I agree that its likely Clinton won't win Iowa but that doesn't mean she's finished. She has a huge lead nationally and is by far the best-known of any candidate in either party. She is in the best position to sustain a defeat in the Iowa cacuses and remain standing, although it is very possible she will lose her lead in other states. Remember that New Hampshire, Michigan, Nevada, South Carolina and Florida all have primaries this month, followed by 22 states on Feb. 5th. Clinton is far from done.
Obama could afford to come in a close second or third in Iowa and pick up his momentum in New Hampshire. I think he will be a factor for a long time.
Edwards has bet his entire campaign on the results of the Iowa caucuses. If he does not win here, then it is hard to see where he can break out. His campaign languished for most of 2007 and he badly needs to win to boost his campaign.
I agree that Huckabee's flat-Earth conservatism will not do well in New Hampshire, but if he wins in Iowa it will greatly boost McCain's chances there and if Romney loses in Iowa, he'll probably lose New Hampshire too. Although it is highly unlikely the GOP base in other states will go for someone who supports amnesty for some illegal immigrants. That just seems anathema to republicans.
