Vilsack, a Clinton supporter, just downplayed the results, saying that Hillary "has already accomplished what she set out to do," which tells me that he knows she's not likely to finish to first and is trying to manage expectations. If she doesn't win NH, she's finished. If Edwards wins Iowa she could posibly bounce back, but not if Obama takes first.
Paul, again, is not a serious threat to any of the top five GOP candidates. He might not make double-digits, let alone third-place.
I see the Dems as Obama, Edwards, Clinton, all very close. For the GOP, Huckabee, Romney, McCain.
If Obama does win, it's very likely that he'll win NH and then dominate Feb. 5. If Huckabee wins, I'm not so sure that it'll carry through. His sort of conservatism doesn't play well in New England, plus the Wall Street Republicans and the GOP foreign-policy establishment hate his guts. If he can remain viable until Super Tuesday, the Southern-heavy slate will probably favor him, but I think Romney will win the nomination in the end.







