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Kasz216 on 20 November 2010
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Armads said:
Kasz216 said:

Oh, FYI we aren't really in economic recovery.  If you look at the last GDP report, it was a larger then expected growth due to invetory aquistitions.

So, unless consumer purchasing ramps up more then your average X-mas, invetory aqusitions will be a drag on future quarters. (Because nobody will be buying more.)

Which means we'll double dip into recession again.

Why?  All the government money is doing is replacing consumer spending.

The consumers however aren't really gaining back any of their spending power.

So all government money does is put the economy into a holding patern until it goes away, and the markets crash and double dip due to the fact that the underlying problem isn't fixed. 

Then all those jobs propped up by government money disapear... and we're right back where we started.  It hasn't created or saved jobs.  Only prolonged their descent... and in doing so prolonged the recovery.

Where are you getting this info?  The WSJ reports that retail sales were at their highest level since august 08 (the month before the collapse of lehman bros.) last october with a 1.2% rise over the previous monthand four straight months of increased consumer spending.  This retail sales report apparently did not have data from walmart and home depot though so we'll have to wait to see how that effects the situation.  I expect postive news from both though as Lowes reported a 17% rise in third quarter sales.  A company whose business was greatly effected by the mortgage prices, people hardly renovate when they can't afford to live their anymore.

http://247wallst.com/2010/10/30/consumer-spending-remains-nears-lows-in-october/

 

I'm talking about the actual consumer spending.

Not "real consumer spending".   "Real consumer spending" doesn't say anything about the health of consumer spending.

 

Note that real consumer spending suprassed pre-great deperession spending, before we went into a double dip.  Saved only by war and then Europe's completely ruined status after WW2 shifting a lot more economic demand to the US.