I think it's very possible that next year you'll be seeing Microsoft very aggressively cutting price to try to widen that gap that's been closing between the 360 and the PS3. The numbers you give, nightsurge seem pretty realistic. So this holidy may be a "let the early adopters turn us a quick buck before we hack and slash at prices over the next two years" approach.
I would not be surprised to see a $99 360S 4GB Slim in early to mid-2012. We might see two decent price drops around E3 and November of 2011. I'm betting we will.







