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--OkeyDokey-- said:
i wouldn't be surprised if MGS4 debuts sub 200k on its release in north america.

people overestimate how big this francise is.

 

North America is actually its smallest market when you consider population size. MGS2 isn't listed, but MGS3 opened with 221k. (however it had very good legs) Europe is actually the biggest market for MGS.

My early prediction

  • North America:250k
  • Japan: 425k (previous releases of MGS have been top-heavy, with half the sales in the first week. 400k puts it at less then MGS and MGS3)
  • Europe 400k

So Japan would have the best opening, but Europe/NA would have much better staying power. (especally Europe)

p.s. I hate making predictions, especially when it comes to numbers. I think this might be the 2nd i have ever done.