postofficebuddy said:
phenom08 said:
billsalias said:
phenom08 said:
@billsalias
And you know how well they are all going to do next year how? I completely understand what your saying by the way and you have every right to make what ever prediction you want, but it sounds like your certain and that's all Im trying to correct. I would like to know who you think will lead in worldwide sales next year though.
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I said "I think" and "it may be". I never said it was certain or even highly likely. I offered a theory about what may happen and some reasons that it might come true. Please go back and read my posts again if you disagree.
As far as who will lead WW total sales for next year, meaning January 1st to December 31st 2011, I think it will be PS3. I also think less then 2 million will separate all three consoles (12m-14m) so it is so in the balance that I would not bet much money on it. What I feel more confident about is that Wii will not win any one region next year. It could still come out on top by being a close second in all of them, but I think it is going to end up 3rd in EMEAA and second in Americas and Japan.
This generation sales have been so crazy though the only thing I would feel certain about is that the 360 is not going to win Japan next year, though I would not rule out it getting a little bump from 2.5k to maybe 5k per week if some of the Japanese developed Kinect games resonate.
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Calender year 2010 the wii is set to do around 18 million and you expect a 4 million drop off, thats alittle unrealistic don't you think. I figured you would say the PS3, but the truth is the wii most likely won't drop off by anywhere near that much. I do see them being 2 million units within each other though, but i think you should put the wii at around 16 million and the PS3 around 14 million. We don't have to discuss the past, the past is already decided and no matter how much you may not like it the PS3 is a long way from being considered king of EMEAA( around 10 million) same with the 360, I just hate the fact that HD owners have to resort to weekly sales to decide the leader instead of LTD sales. Do you see wii fans dethroning the ps2 as the new home console king? No
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18 million is far from a sure thing this year. So far Wii is actually trending below 2007 when it did 16.4 million. It's over 500k behind 2007's pace. Even with a price cut next year it probably won't do enough to reverse the situation in Japan which has gone from bad to worse. If DQ10 doesn't come out next year or the Vitality Sensor doesn't reignite sales I fear there's a very real chance that Wii may have a sub-million year there which would basically be its death knell in that region. On top of that, although Wii is not doing very well for the year overall so far I think people are too quick to forget how amazing quarter 1 was this year. The Wii had an enormous amount of momentum coming off of holiday 2009 and it translated into the Wii's best Q1 ever. Next year Wii most likely won't have nearly that much momentum coming off the holidays. Even Iwata himself has admitted, "Wii could be in trouble post-Christmas".
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About 7 million between now and december can definitely be done, im quite certain it can but 17 million is still pretty good, the point is a 4 million drop off is pretty steep, an 2 million drop off is more likely which would lead to 15 million or the ps3's peak so how exactly is it in trouble.
