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HappySqurriel on 14 November 2010
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Mummelmann said:
HappySqurriel said:
Mummelmann said:

So Nintendo wins next gen by default? Is that what people think?


I wouldn't say that ...

An individual buying a console in a generation is probably far more likely to buy the follow up console from that manufacturer than someone who didn't buy that console, and third party publishers will tend to support a system that is the successor to a more popular system. While these rules are not written in stone, it does indicate that the successor to the most popular system in a generation has a massive advantage.

Like all advantages this can be overcome, in particular if the manufacturer makes significant mistakes. Of course, when it comes to speculation about mistakes it is equally as likely (potentially more likely) that the manufacturer of a trailing console will make mistakes which hurt its success in the following generation.


Underline; will this be the case with the Wii's successor though? It has pretty poor support as is and the recent declines have only spurred on the 3rd parties' feelings towards it and magnified them.

Like you said, mistakes can lose ground, Sony are the living embodiment of such mistakes.


A large portion of the weakness in third party support for the Wii can be attributed to third party publishers betting so heavily on the success of the successor to the previous generation's dominant console.  It wasn't until after the Wii passed the XBox 360 in worldwide sales and was still selling at (roughly) the level of the PS3 and XBox 360 combined that most third party publishers would accept the Wii as being a viable platform; and with the difference in capabilities between the HD consoles and the Wii, few projects could be switched to the Wii in mid development, and most development teams had updated tool-sets and team sizes to handle HD projects and didn't want to convert back to Wii games.

With the success of the Wii it is unlikely that any third party publisher will ignore its successor in the same way they ignored the Wii, or allow their development teams to migrate entirely away from what Nintendo produces. If you assume that the successor to the Wii may be more in line with the processing power of the HD console's successors (partially because Nintendo increases performance, partially because the HD console manufacturers reduce initial costs of their console by reducing performance, and partially because of diminishing returns and enhancements of little value) it become entirely possible that 80% or more of third party games will be released on the successor to the Wii in some form.

 

 

Or to put it another way ... Third party publishers bet so heavily on the PS3 based on the success of the PS2 that they ignored the popularity of the Wii and the massive price of the PS3. What makes you think that third party publishers wouldn't bet heavily on the successor to the most successful console in this generation?