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Mummelmann said:

So Nintendo wins next gen by default? Is that what people think?


I wouldn't say that ...

An individual buying a console in a generation is probably far more likely to buy the follow up console from that manufacturer than someone who didn't buy that console, and third party publishers will tend to support a system that is the successor to a more popular system. While these rules are not written in stone, it does indicate that the successor to the most popular system in a generation has a massive advantage.

Like all advantages this can be overcome, in particular if the manufacturer makes significant mistakes. Of course, when it comes to speculation about mistakes it is equally as likely (potentially more likely) that the manufacturer of a trailing console will make mistakes which hurt its success in the following generation.