What is just as crazy as me going blindfolded into a pitch black room with 3 darts in my right hand trying to throw them at a dart board are individuals who believe that they should keep gambling because they are on a winning streak.
It is just as crazy to think the current success of the Wii will translate into Nintendo dominating the next gen and beyond. Nintendo learned this quite well with the Nintendo 64 and Sony learned it well with the PS3. Microsoft is still the new kid on the block and cannot be judged in the same vein as either Nintendo or Sony. My opinion is that the Xbox 360 has been a phenomenal success from the Xbox. I doubt Microsoft will ever be #1 in any generation here on out because they appeal to and cater to a smaller PC gaming friendly demographic than either Nintendo or Sony. Microsoft in any given generation is like Ralph Nader in a US Presidential election, in that he costs one candidate the win by merely offering a third oval to fill in on the ballot. In this generation, Microsoft has cost Sony more than Nintendo, but I could be wrong.
Number 1 in any generation, in my opinion, will always be a battle between Nintendo and Sony. Nintendo appeals to many gamers, but makes it a point of being family friendly. Sony has more or less taken Sega's place as the "counter-culture" console that only the cool kids play. This hasn't always been the case with Sony as we have seen when they had Crash Bandicoot, Ratchet and Clank, and others, they seriously crowded in on Nintendo's territory by offering a substitute to the usual round of Mario, Zelda, Donkey Kong, and Metroid.
If you look at who and where Sony is selling to right now, South America, India, and the EMEAA with less of a European focus, you better believe those traditionally underserved regions will pull for Sony in the next generation because Sony has taken the time and done the hard work to get name and brand recognition. As the US, Japan, and Europe continue to be mired in our recessions, while countries like Brazil are booming then who appeals to markets like Brazil may be the winner in the next generation.
I could be wrong and it may be whoever wins the majority of the Americas market first next gen, yet something in my gut tells me my country and Canada are going to have less influence, just like Japan, in determining the #1 console for generations to come.
