HappySqurriel said:
Killiana1a said:
HappySqurriel said:
What you don't seem to be willing to see is that success tends to lead to greater success in this market ...
With how well the Wii has sold this generation (along with the success of the Nintendo DS and the 'hype' around the 3DS) as soon as Nintendo approaches major third party publishers with information about their next generation console they will begin working on games for it; and the will probably devoted some of their better teams, with popular franchises, and adequate resources to complete these projects. With more, higher quality and better known games third party publishers will see far greater success than they did on the Wii; and it is likely that this will result in a greater focus on this system.
If Nintendo releases the system before their competition it is likely that they will get ports of all major games being released to HD consoles today, and a significant number of games which are effectively exclusive or timed exclusive simply because there isn't a competition system to port them to; and by the time their competition arrives on the market, Nintendo's system can be significantly less expensive, with a larger more interesting library, and the full support of third party publishers.
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Problem is, the same did not hold true for Sony regarding the PS3 failing compared to the PS2, but this is another topic.
Present success better prepares one for future success, but it does not guarantee it. You may and most likely are exactly right regarding 3rd parties and the next Nintendo next console. However, to think just because Nintendo is #1 means they will get equal 3rd party support compared to Sony and Microsoft is a bit lacking.
The company cultures of both Sony and Microsoft inherently invite 3rd party support. Sony the most because 3rd party support is what made the PS1 and PS2 such smashing successes. Microsoft is along the same lines with their involvement in the PC gaming industry prior to launching the Xbox.
Neither Sony or Microsoft could last 1 year without a quality 3rd party release. Their biggest weaknesses besides an emphasis of technology over software is their unwillingness to generate quality 1st party games. Sony and Microsoft consoles in this respect are defined by 3rd parties, while Nintendo defines itself.
I believe Nintendo's 1st party successes have engendered an attitude of "we are #1 now, we were #1 then, and the products we make will never be outshined by a 3rd party product." I have not seen any 3rd party game released on the Wii to make me think to the contrary. The link Khuutra listed of the top selling 7th generation games is dominated by Nintendo 1st party games.
Regarding 3rd parties, Nintendo's 1st party success is it's weakness. Can the 3DS buck this trend? Of course.
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The PS3's failure was covered in my first post on this topic ...
There are two things that have been demonstrated to undermine the advantage of being the successor to a market leading console, being beaten to the market by 18 months or more (N64) or launching for $500 or more (PS3). If Nintendo launches their next system for around $300, at the same time or earlier than their competition, history shows us that it is very unlikely that this system will not be the market leading system.
Or to put it another way, I think it is more likely that Sony and Microsoft will launch their console's 18 months (or more) after Nintendo's next system at a price of $500 (or more) which will lead to both systems selling less than 20 million units than it is for Nintendo not to sell at least as many systems as their competition in the next generation.
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I think, but don't know with 100% certainty, neither Sony nor Microsoft will make the same mistake as the PS3 with the $600 launch price. It took Sony 2 to 3 years to climb out of that black hole and it was not an unseen climb.
Scenario B (launching 18 months before) is more likely to happen. From what I read, Sony wants this generation to last, while many others and myself firmly believe Nintendo will end this generation come holidays 2012. Lord knows what Microsoft is up to...Heck I won't be surprised if they make the first digital distribution only console backwards and forwards compatible with PC gaming with upgradeable graphics drives and whatnot to stay consistent with cutting edge PC graphics.
Both Sony and Microsoft can afford to wait it out for another 2 years because their product lines are diverse ranging from music labels to automotive software. Nintendo being the sole, pure video game company does not have time as a luxury, which many view as a weakness, but in reality is strength because it allows them to approach the market with a single-minded focus on video games and not developing products such as 3D gaming to support their 3D televisions as Sony is doing.
Nintendo will be first, but for how long is unknown. The wildcard here is Microsoft. Sony has already stated their want for this generation to continue into 2014.
