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HappySqurriel on 12 November 2010
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Killiana1a said:
HappySqurriel said:
Killiana1a said:
Khuutra said:

So you want to make a shot in the dark rather than even waiting to see the console in question?

Why not? Nintendo fans are predicting the world-wide domination of Nintendo with the 3DS. I figured I might as well bite back because all this Nintendo koombyeyah with the Wii, while conveniently forgetting about the N64 and Gamecube has me feeling pretty brave and in a Devil's Advocate type of mood.

Responses are as expected. Some ad hominem, a few completely tearing apart my argument, and many just plain referencing the Wii as if the next Nintendo console will follow the same exact success lines of the Wii. Some unexpected, some expected and all original. I appreciate the feedback positive or negative.

I might look stupid in a few years or others may not want to see me come around crowing when I am right. I figure it is a 50/50 shot at this point and I am confident looking at the 2009 and 2010 numbers for Nintendo in comparison to 2008 and earlier.

Expectations in 2010 are a lot different than they were in 2006. By the time the next generation arrives, it is possible that all which made the Wii successful will become so commonplace between Move, Kinect and Wii that Nintendo may not even know how to find another Blue Pond if they decide the Blue Ocean is crowded with Sony and Microsoft.

Furthermore, I have a strong enough ego to be wrong and come again. I have been wrong many times before, I will be wrong many times again. Everyone fails, but it is how you respond to failure which determines your character.

I hope I am wrong in this case, but I will sit back and smile smugly if I am right. Time will tell.

What you don't seem to be willing to see is that success tends to lead to greater success in this market ...

With how well the Wii has sold this generation (along with the success of the Nintendo DS and the 'hype' around the 3DS) as soon as Nintendo approaches major third party publishers with information about their next generation console they will begin working on games for it; and the will probably devoted some of their better teams, with popular franchises, and adequate resources to complete these projects. With more, higher quality and better known games third party publishers will see far greater success than they did on the Wii; and it is likely that this will result in a greater focus on this system.

If Nintendo releases the system before their competition it is likely that they will get ports of all major games being released to HD consoles today, and a significant number of games which are effectively exclusive or timed exclusive simply because there isn't a competition system to port them to; and by the time their competition arrives on the market, Nintendo's system can be significantly less expensive, with a larger more interesting library, and the full support of third party publishers.

Problem is, the same did not hold true for Sony regarding the PS3 failing compared to the PS2, but this is another topic.

Present success better prepares one for future success, but it does not guarantee it. You may and most likely are exactly right regarding 3rd parties and the next Nintendo next console. However, to think just because Nintendo is #1 means they will get equal 3rd party support compared to Sony and Microsoft is a bit lacking.

The company cultures of both Sony and Microsoft inherently invite 3rd party support. Sony the most because 3rd party support is what made the PS1 and PS2 such smashing successes. Microsoft is along the same lines with their involvement in the PC gaming industry prior to launching the Xbox.

Neither Sony or Microsoft could last 1 year without a quality 3rd party release. Their biggest weaknesses besides an emphasis of technology over software is their unwillingness to generate quality 1st party games. Sony and Microsoft consoles in this respect are defined by 3rd parties, while Nintendo defines itself.

I believe Nintendo's 1st party successes have engendered an attitude of "we are #1 now, we were #1 then, and the products we make will never be outshined by a 3rd party product." I have not seen any 3rd party game released on the Wii to make me think to the contrary. The link Khuutra listed of the top selling 7th generation games is dominated by Nintendo 1st party games.

Regarding 3rd parties, Nintendo's 1st party success is it's weakness. Can the 3DS buck this trend? Of course.


The PS3's failure was covered in my first post on this topic ...

There are two things that have been demonstrated to undermine the advantage of being the successor to a market leading console, being beaten to the market by 18 months or more (N64) or launching for $500 or more (PS3). If Nintendo launches their next system for around $300, at the same time or earlier than their competition, history shows us that it is very unlikely that this system will not be the market leading system.

Or to put it another way, I think it is more likely that Sony and Microsoft will launch their console's 18 months (or more) after Nintendo's next system at a price of $500 (or more) which will lead to both systems selling less than 20 million units than it is for Nintendo not to sell at least as many systems as their competition in the next generation.