The first set of official VGC numbers will only tell a partial picture, but no point in speculating on "what would have happened" had MS gone with a full week, WW simultaneous Kinect release since that didn't happen.
We'll just have to look at the partial first week NA debut sales (stock of sensors sold out first day at most retail outlets anyway), and then compare those with the second week WW sales. Third week sales should provide an even clearer picture of how sales are tracking, but... numbers will be limited by availability of stock from region to region.
Once again to clarify: numbers (at least on the sensor as long as it continues to sell through) are limited by the amount of stock MS can deliver to retail.
I still believe the 360 hardware sales bump due to Kinect is the most important number to monitor through the holidays.
