Another factor is that UPS doesn't do normal deliveries on saturday, That means anyone who ordered online would have to wait til the next monday or beyond to get their copies. I certainly wouldn't want to be anywhere near a shopping mall on black friday weekend, it's complete and utter madness.
Also, people who shop on black friday aren't looking for the latest releases. They are looking for the massive discounts on products first and foremost.
Anyone can guess. It takes no effort to throw out lots of predictions and have some of them be correct. You are not and wiser or better for having your guesses be right. Even a blind man can hit the bullseye.







