PS3 grabs 20%+ of the market !

[shams]

LOL at WiiFit vrs HOME arguments. One is a game/app, sold in stores that Nintendo makes money off... the other is a free, downloadable multiplayer lobby application. Nice way to compare them.

...

Anyway, on topic:

By end of '08, Wii will have *at least* 40m sold. 360 will have at *least* 20m sold, probably closer to 25m.

So combined that is 60m-65m.

If the PS3 has 20m sold, the total market is 80m-85m.

20m/80m = 25%.
20m/85m = 23%.

*If* the Wii (somehow) gets to 50m...

20/90m = 22%
20/95m = 21%

The PS3 is *really* going to struggle to get to 30% market share. Best case is if it sells 15m in the next 12months (*very* unlikely IMO), 360 sells 5m, and the Wii only 20m. That places it just below 30%.

The Wii is heading towards 60% marketshare, with the 360/PS3 taking 20% each. But it will take 2-3 years to get there.

...

Worst case for PS3 would be something like:

Wii gets to 50m by end of '08
360 gets to 25m
PS3 sells around 8m, taking it to 17m

17/93 = 18% share (loses 2% from now)