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Squilliam on 05 November 2010
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CrazyHorse said:
Squilliam said:
CrazyHorse said:

I wonder if the relative success of Move has made them rethink their estimates? If Sony are to be believed and have had to increase production to meet a higher than expected demand then I expect MS would be fairly happy. I don't see why they wouldn't expect a similar (and probabaly greater) success with Kinect, especially given their marketing push. I wouldn't put too much faith in pre-order numbers as an indication of sales as, like others have said, Kinect should do very well over the holidays.

I don't really see them looking to Move at all for their numbers. They already have data and that data gets better as they can see the feedback from their recent advertising moves with Ellen and Oprah etc. Remember both Brett and Pachter has Move for 5M unique users by March, they are looking at 5M within 8 weeks. Completely different sales rates.

Well you're right in that they will obviously have their own data on sales projections and may have been able to refine that data based on recent feedback. However, the only hard numbers available on how sales may perform comes from pre-order data and Move sell through. As many have already said, pre-order data may not be all that useful for casual friendly products so I see no reason why they wouldn't adjust projections based off a competitors sales. Granted the two products are not identical but they are going after the same markets (again MS will likely do much better in the area of attracting new casual owners). If Sony underestimated the demand from potential Wii owners or Wii owners who wish to 'upgrade' (as seems evident by their recent statements, backed up by the EMEAA data) then MS may have done similar and are now correcting their projections based on actually data. Only speculation of course.

They have more data than that.

  • Phone surveys
  • Internet surveys
  • Internet traffic/search
  • Retailer traffic
  • Kinect advertisement displays in malls and the interest therein
  • internal marketing focus groups
  • beta testers analytic data on how often they use Kinect
  • etc

The main reason why I am kind of doubtful of their taking major cues from Move is that Move is on a competing console and is targeting a completely different audience. It is quite likely that both Move and Kinect could co-exist on the Xbox 360 without too much overlap. Furthermore like I said before, Moves sales rate is still quite a bit lower than their original projections.

As for Wii owners looking to upgrade, well, maybe. I can't really comment on what they want to do. Data on that is very hard to come by so therefore I will have to take Sony's word on that.





Tease.