mrstickball said:
Zucas said:
mrstickball said:
Most governments *do* drop in popularity during the mid term. However, it usually isn't something that shifts fast. For example, the Republicans lost about 60 seats over TWO votes....The Dems may lose that many in half the time.
Yes, its possible that a 3rd party candidate could win the presendency. However, it hasn't happened since Abraham Lincoln in 1860. It almost happened with Ross Perot in 1992, but due to crazy circumstances, he lost.
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Yea they drop in popularity on the midterm as a large amount of seats picked up by the President's party in the presidential election year is from independents rallying with that party. Midterm elections aren't as "popular" among the masses and the president's party loses those votes. So the loss is well-documented and almost guaranteed to happen, aside from a few instances in American political history.
Now for losing them fast, it usually doesn't happen fast. However, in times of economic trouble, usually those in power aren't looked highly upon. Economy, has and always will, trump any other issue. So with a high unemployment rate and an economy, while stable, but not fully recovered, a large swing power isn't something to out of the question and obviously what we are seeing right now. Whether or not the state of the economy is in fact the fault (if bad) or success (if good) of the party in control, it usually tends to be seen that way.
Really shows how important the state of the economy is into the political game in America, or well any country.
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Historically, if the Republicans take 50-60 seats, it will be the 3rd worst election in history for Democrats. Only 1894 and 1938 were worse. Crazy stuff.
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Definitely crazy stuff but that's what makes politics so interesting me. Why I majored in it haha. But yea the election 1894 followed the Panic of 1893 and the election of 1938 followed the recession of 1937.
Democrats are definitely going to have to be planning these next 2 years to really ensure that 2012 doesn't completely take them out. But I guess even more importantly, is how this mixed government of Democrats and Republicans are going to overcome the issues at present. Should be quite interesting.
