Seece said:
Q4 CY? (Q ending Dec 31st?) I strongly disagree.
I was shown this yesterday,
| Xbox 360 |
PS3 |
| Q3 2008 - 2.2 |
Q3 2008 - 2.4 |
| Q4 2008 - 6.0 - 172.73% |
Q4 2008 - 4.5 - 87.50% |
| |
|
| Q3 2009 - 2.1 |
Q3 2009 - 3.2 |
| Q4 2009 - 5.2 - 147.62% |
Q4 2009 - 6.5 - 103.13% |
The numbers and trend is clear, though I don't think that's so much overshippiing, perhaps Sony preparing earlier for christmas, given it starts earlier in Europe and that's their strongest region? Who knows, more so this year, with Move launching mid September, they had 3 weeks to ship out Move bundles.
Kinect bundles were probably ready and accounted for 2 weeks ago, so they completely missed the last Q. Microsoft would not want to fill the retail channel with 360's when they have a massive batch of Kinect bundles on the way, retailers need to make space.
So saying Sony will ship an extra 2.9 million units, based on that information, is incredibly unlikely.
If the PS3 ships a similar pattern to those previous years, 90% - 105% roughly, it should ship 6.7 - 7.1 million.
Now if the X360 ships similar to previous years, it's 7.0 - 7.6 million.
Breaking down the previous years, 2008 Xbox, had a price cut in September. No new sku though, so the shipments would have been a steady flow through Q3/4. The increased demand over Q4 meant they shipped a whopping 170% increase. 2008 was a pretty insignificant christmas for the PS3, no price cut, no sku, and no major HW movers to my knowledge? so Quater over Quater, shipments didn't grow very much, I imagin over xmas they sold a lot of what they got shipped in Q3.
Xbox 2009, xbox saw a lower but still high increase % wise, due to the elite price cut? Or maybe MS ship more during the holiday. PS3 had high shipments in Q3 anyway, the % increase was higher than previous year though, again thanks to demand.
It's hard to figure out their shipping methods, given MS ship most of their stock to the west, means it's done differently to Sony that ship all over the world moreso then MS.
Next Q's shipments will be the most telling.
Edit - of course if you mean financial Q4 (march for Sony, June for MS), again no, but at least more likely than end of Dec.
For this to happen PS3 would have to ship close to 8 million, and for Kinect to be a near failuer and 360 ship 5 million. I mean it's not impossible, but it's not likely either is it?
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