38m tracked vs 41.6m shipped
lets say actuall sell through was 40m leaving 1.6m on shelf.
that would be a 2m difference which is an error of about 5%....
i say VGC is doing a good job given the difficulty of collecting good data for their predictions.
and to address the "VGC still not learing or biased etc etc", we have to understand that there are regions that are not tracked AT ALL! these regions are the new regions/countries where in SONY just released the PS3. Lets take an example, lets say Philippines, anyone tracking sales there? I dont think so. any way of geting at least an estimate of how many units were sold there? probably but i havent a clue how, does anyone know? most likely no.
as for the topic at hand, no, IMO, the 360 is gona do a Wii and sell like gangbuster to the casual market increasing hardware installbase like crazy. though IMO, software will also do a wii where in only the core gaming market will be purchasing games while the cassuals will be happy with a game or two that they will play during parties and stuff.
