3 million shipped in NA implies closer to 4.5 million in Europe, given the 1.5:1 ratio for launch. Then there's the pending Japanese release. Lowballing it, I'd say they're targeting at minimum 8 million worldwide. ~3 million NA, ~4 million EU, ~1 million Japan.
If they sell through a good portion of what they ship this holiday, that's an install base somewhere between 2.5 and 4 million, assuming people are buying 2-3 controllers each (I, for comparison, only bought one).







