I think Sony will ride out PS3 and not launch PS4 until MS launches XB3. They won't want to give them a year headstart like this gen, considering how disastrous it'd turned out. And really, XB3 depends on how well Kinect does I think... if it flops, we'll see XB3 in 2012. If it's a big success, it may push XB3 back as far as 2014-2015 even.
Wii 2 will likely be around PS3-plus spec (as 3DS is PSP-plus spec), so that gives them some breathing room no matter when it launches. The only worry there is if Wii 2 & 360 mulitplatform R&D start crowding PS3 out for ports, like what happened with GameCube last gen (3's a crowd).







