The biggest element of a successful PS4 is introductory price. My hypothetical PS4...
500 GB SKU: $400
Cloud Storage SKU: $300 (no internal hard drive, requires internet connection)
The biggest reason for the $600 price point was the blu-ray player. Cost is down dramatically, so I don't expect another $600 console. I pray Sony has learned their lesson. If you look at sales, the 360 leads by 3-5 million depending on the source. People know PlayStation and trust PlayStation and I suspect they still do. A low price point will guarantee the PS4's place at least second if not first in the next console war.
PS4 MUST be backwards compatible. There are too many quality games on the PS3.
Of course, I expect Sony to include some killer hardware. Rumors were a variation of the POWER VR6 GPU and Power 7 CPU. The architecture must be easier for developers. I would imagine a 32nm or 22nm process, depending on release date.
And finally, Sony needs a killer lineup for the first year. My wet dream is as follows assuming a release date in Q4 2012.
Q4 2012: A fourth God of War
Q1 2013: Killzone 4
Q2 2013: inFamous 3
Q3 2013: If Naughty Dog is up to it, a fourth Uncharted.
Q4 2013: Gran Turismo 6
I call this a bridge where Sony can bridge the PS3 and PS4 by providing familiar AAA software for the first year giving PS3 owners a reason to make the switch.
Of course this is me dreaming I can only hope that Sony has learned their lessons.
2011 Predictions
Wii: 17m (100 million total)
360: 13m (63 million total)
PS3: 15m (61 million total)







