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Based on the latest info, I'm guesstimating the following (starting from 2.5 M shipped):

 

 

  • sell through of 65% = 1.625 million units sold
  • allowing for fair number of people buying 2 units I figure 1 million actual install base

 

VG has round 450K SC I believe which means around 45% bought that with the rest playing all the demos, buying something else or using Move with existing titles (RE5:Gold, Heavy Rain, EyePet, etc)
I suspect Eyepet in particular helped, as the Move patch really does make it much better and as an Eyepet owner only needs to go out and buy 1 Move controller it's a bit of a no-brainer.
So for me, the numbers seem more or less sensible from the evidence we have.
I expect Move to sell well enough in terms of units, but Kinect to have the larger install base, at least initially over a comparable period, as it'll be one sale one customer.
I still have no idea if either will take off post holiday season and that's the big trend to watch IMHO.


Try to be reasonable... its easier than you think...