| TheSource said: If you run through VGC data for 2004-2009, and throw in 2010 YTD SW figures for the five current platforms (Wii, PS3, X360, DS, PSP) you see that just about every publisher is going to struggle to match their peak figures on the current round of systems. This is even with some companies still set to post record figures on individual systems (Ubisoft on Wii, Square-Enix on all three consoles, Sega on PS3 is already a record, Konami is a possibility on Wii, Capcom will likely see record figures on PSP...not much else). Figures below are worldwide and millions of units for each publisher across the five current systems.
Pink figures indicate publishers that might see record sales on the current five machines in 2010. Even with the holiday rush yet to come its hard to imagine companies like Activision and EA making up the difference from last year to 2010. Activision still has Call of Duty - which could sell something like 15 million copies - and DJ Hero 2 - which might sell 3m copies in 2010, its catalogue, and other stuff...but that still gets them no where near the 60m games they sold last year. Something like 40 million units is more likely. EA is similar - Rockband 3, Medal of Honor, and others will do several million units each...but it isn't enough. For Nintendo, if you figure 8m Wiis between now and the end of the year, catalogue sales, Wii Party, DKC, Kirby, etc its still hard to see Nintendo getting past 110m units of sw for the year. First party efforts for Move / Kinect will likely get Sony / Microsoft to record sales on the current machines, but it looks like just about every third party will be down alot this year. With 3DS set to harm DS and PSP next year, and Wii / PS3 / X360 all likely to be off their 2010 paces, its hard to imagine next year being any better for the majority of publishers on the current machines, and so the next round of systems shouldn't be too far off. |
How does this square with this recent interview with EA CEO?
http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/30444/EA_CEO_Optimistic_About_Industry_Company_Growth.php
“I think there’s more of a cloud over the industry for the lack of certainty than what those of us in the industry feel is real,” he said. “I really do see opportunity... we really do see 20% growth in the first half on high definition game consoles, where we concentrate our business. We really do see burgeoning digital growth ... It doesn’t feel like a recession to me.”
