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Kinect release is still one month away, so why should they spend money on expensive TV commercials already?

And don't forget that the "hundreds of millions" marketing budget is not only on commercials. For example, several weeks ago Microsoft placed a Kinect booth in the city I work at so people could try Kinect out. The booth was huge and they placed it right in the most crowded place of the town. It looked like it was quite expensive, and they are probably doing that in many german cities...