Well, Sony has the Eyetoy/PS Eye which is capable of motion sensing and will continue to improve next generation, so that is a possible avenue for them. MS has apparently already approached Gyration Inc. about similar tech to that found in the wii.
But I guess the core of your argument is whether the motion-sensing technologies used in the wii will become standard. The answer to that is almost certainly no.
Whatever nintendo fans say, the wii's motion-controls have been a success because of the novelty factor. Due to the paucity of buttons and the limitations of the accelerometer/pointer combo, the wiimote/nunchuk doesn't offer as many input options as a standard controller. Nintendo's unique design obviously has a lot of potential for new control schemes, but they will be pretty much be exhausted by the end of this gen.
MS and Sony may incorporate some kind of motion-control (Sony already has) but it will not replace the classic controller. It is just too impractical.
The best bet would be for them to release an add-on peripheral. Actually I'm surprised they haven't already. Nintendo haven't developed any of the tech themselves so the patents on the wiimote are probably pretty shaky (check out Namco's Guncon for evidence of that.)
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