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Dude what are you talking about?  This is all speculation... Kinect is being debuted this year which means that 2011 is when it should really pick up steam and 2012 is when I expect Microsoft to ANNOUNCE their next console with a likely release the 2nd half of 2013.  Releasing a console too early (meaning more than 1 1/2 years too early) would be suicide for them because by the time a competitor comes out with their console they will technologically not be able to compete.