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So why haven't launch consoles sold as much as they could?  Supply issues.  Its the bane of every launch this gen (PS3 couldn't even launch in Europe the same year because of it) and prevented them from selling much more units at launch (which actually would've been bad for MS and Sony because they were selling consoles at a loss at the time, but I digress).

So how does MS know that this will be bigger?  Because it will have PLENTY of supply to meet the demand.  It's not arrogance.  It's simply numbers.