Kinect will be big, but MS is a bit too confident IMO. I just don't see that casuals will mainly buy the Kinect bundle instead of a much cheaper Wii. But furthermore, I wouldn't really compare Kinect with consoles.
Anyway, everytime I read statements by MS about Kinect it seems to me like they consider it as a new platform, or better, as a new system and not as a peripheral. On the one hand I think it's weird, on the other hand it's probably a good marketing strategy.
2012 - Top 3 [so far]
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