Quick Reference HW Charts, Sep - Dec 08/09/10

[saicho]

Seece said:

saicho said:

Start of September is high since generally it's a down trend throughout September. Once it gets into October, it turns into an up trend based on the data in the last two years. If you average the last 3 weeks of September and first 4 weeks of October for each console in the last two years, only PS3 last year has a higher September numbers since it has the second week of the price cut redesign.

You are arguing that the down trend continues until the end of October which the numbers don't support.

Actually, my main point was sales don't start picking up until late October for a console with no price cut/big game, and I stand by that, I don't call sales fluctuating within a 15k range "picking up", it's quite clear what picking up means, it's the jump in the last week of October for those consoles.

You actually made more than one point in your posts. This is what you said.

"if I'm right and it doesn't start rising by last week of October, it has 5 weeks to drop to that level. Possible it could go below 115k."

I agree that sales would significantly "pick up" at the end of October. However, it doesn't mean it would continue dropping during October. Based on your theory, October numbers should be lower than September numbers since it will drop for the next 5 weeks. The numbers show otherwise.