I have to agree that at this point the 'general' upmarket on Wii is pretty damn small. Maybe 1-2m if that. Then there's the Nintendo fans who will buy any Mario, Zelda and likely DKC game who I'd peg at around 6-7m.
Now Nintendo is great at creating cross appeal so a game like Mario Kart or NSMB can sell over 10m. But so far 3rd parties have had virtually no luck creating cross-over appeal. Largely it's because they are missing Mario, or any other brand that people associate with 'fun' rather than 'gamer's game'. There's been some excellent attempts. The recent Prince of Persia is one. It's a solid game, rated better than it's HD counterparts, tons of content, looks great and has been designed specifically for Wii, makes great use of Wii controls and is more accessible than most games. But how does a casual Wii owner know it's more accessible to play? They won't unless they read review sites which they don't. NHL Slapshot is another great attempt at making a rock-solid upmarket game with cross-over appeal which seems to be failing. Tatsunoko Vs Capcom is another, although it did better than Capcom expected it's sales are far from impressive.
That's not only a 3rd party problem either, Nintendo has the same problem. Look at M:oM. It's a more accessible game than the Prime series (by returning to it's 2D roots and simply gameplay mechanics) but it's sales are terrible. Clearly they were hoping for more retro and cross-over appeal but in this case it seems to have back-fired.
Despite some great advertising MH3 failed to entice the casuals to buy and wasn't compelling enough to pull the upmarket away from their HD games. And pretty much all upmarket Wii owners own an HD system at this point.
Really at this point, I'd say except for a brand like CoD or GTA which could entice 70 % of Wii's upmarket to buy, it's just too small to bother with. Goldeneye and NBA Jam are clearly hoping their retro appeal will appeal to many Nintendo fans, tapping into that 6-7m market and NBA Jam will likely have some cross-over appeal due to it's arcade roots. Kirby should do well enough. Any other upmarket games, despite however good they are, I'd expect to flop.
