For the Dems, remember that if a candidate receives less than 15% of the vote is eliminated, his/her voters must pick a new candidate. That means all those Kucinich/Dodd/Richardson/Biden voters will be tossing their votes to Hillary, Edwards, or Obama. Seems to me anyone who wants to vote for Hillary would do so anyway. Edwards & Obama will be the likely benefactors in this "second choice" contest. Add in the fact that Hillary's supporters have a disproportionately high number of people who have never voted in a caucus, and I'm predicting a close 3rd place finish for her, which will be the beginning of her campaign going off the rails (since her main appeal seems to be her "inevitable victory"). As for first and second, that's something I'm having trouble with. Obama is the hot horse, but Edwards has the support of the unions and traditional Caucus voters. In deference to my Edwards supporting wife, I'm picking him for a suprising but narrow win, with Obama in 2nd. However, I expect less than 5% to separate the three candidates (something like a 35-33-32 split).
The GOP rules are more straight foward. Expect rabid Ron Paul voters to move him to the middle of the pack (though no higher than 3rd). Giuliani has been losing votes and abandoned the state, so I don't see him finishing well. Whether this derails his campaign strategy depends on whetehr a front runner emerges before the Florida, California, NY, PA and NJ vote. Thomson has never really caught on, though he seems like a great VP pick, andis in many ways exactly what GOP voters want, but for some reason, don't. Still, his down home Tenessee demeanor plays well in Iowa. McCain is experiencing a resurgence, but he too wrote the state off, and his refusal to support ethanol subsidies can't help. That leaves Romney and Huckabee. Huck had it in the bag 2 weeks ago, but since then people have looked in the bad. He hasn't looked strong on foreign policy, and is looking less and less ready for prime time. Still, evangelicals make up over half the GOP caucus, which will give him at least a 2nd place finish. Romney should have had this thing sown up a long time ago, but he's faltered a bit too. He's gone hard after Huckabee (in fairness all the candidates have gone negative, but Romney moreso), and has made some significant flubs (the MLK Jr quote).
Best guess? Huckabee barely edges out Romney, followed by McCain, Fred, Paul, and Rudy. However no candidate will emerge a clear favorite, and the situation will remain muddied for most of the year. I am very much expecting a convention fight for the GOP.
Guessing percentages?
Huckabee and Romney - around 25% each, combined for 40-60% of the total.
McCain and Fred - around 15% each, between 20-35% total
RuPaul and Rudy - Under 10% each, at most 15% combined.
