I see it largely as a matter of momentum. Wii has great momentum in all 3 territories, and that is only going to increase (especially when they finally launch in China/India and other places). It's sales will continue to increase year over year for at least the next 2 years.
PS3 has momentum in Others only. 360 has momentum in NA only. So in those areas they should see sales increase next year. In other areas where they are lacking momentum, they will remain flat or fall as people goto the system(s) that all their friends are getting. When spending large amounts of cash, people like to back the winning horse.
And as far as this argument that casuals will jump ship, that is ridiculous and holds no water whatsoever when looking at other systems that were popular with the casual crowd (Atari 2600, NES, PS2). It's the technophiles that jump onto the so-called 'next big thing' first, not the casuals. Did all the casuals owning PS2s jump onto the xbox's bandwagon? No. They remained with the PS2. Now who went to the xbox? Hardcore.
To look at it from another perspective, the only true system that reflects the Wii is the DS. Is that losing marketshare/sales after 3 years? Ah... no. It's gaining them. Is Nintendogs old and boring now for casuals? Ah... no it's still in the freaking top 10!! With over 115k sales in a week. How? Why? Simple. Casual market is 10x the size of harcore and more loyal. Wii isn't in any danger of losing their market to PS3/360 ever in this generation and will have PS2 legs next generation too, despite growing competition (more players) entering the market.
But none of this means that the PS3 and 360 can't also be thriving successful systems in their own right. The market is big enough (and growing) to support all.
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