Reasonable analysis, though I think your yearly sales numbers are off. Right now Nintendo is pushing 1.8 million per month, which, if that held consistent and the system continued to sell out thrugh 2008, would only get them to 41 million or so. Granted they will likely increase production, but I also have a hard time believing that they will continue to have demand exceeding supply. I think granting them 2 million per month to bring them to 44 million seems more reasonable, with maybe another 2-3 for the holiday season.
With the 360 26 million would likely mean lanother 10 million, or a 25% increase over this year. I think this is reasonable unless they are really going to go all year without a big - and long overdue- price cut.
For PS3 to hit 21 million, we're talking about an even bigger increase than with the 360. I'm not sure Sony has a big price cut in them before the fall, and have a hard time seeing them getting past 20 million.
Anyway... I'd dish out the awards as follows:
Golden Disk: Nintendo. Anyone who needs an explanation should not even be here.
Silver Disk: Microsoft. Admittedly it didn't seem to want the award at times, from the RROD, to the dismal E3 showing, to the ongoing failure in Japan. However, they did have the biggest game of the year in Halo 3, a couple of stellar, platform exclusive titles (Bioshock, Mass Effect), and just building a spectacular library overall. Add in the fix of the RROD, the revamping of the ludicrous "Core" model, and the fact that it managed to hold its ground over the PS3, I feel it did about as much right as wrong.
Bronze Disk: Just missed out on the Turd-Green-Halo3-Edition Disk. The first two thirds of 2007 was one of the worst periods for any gaming company over the past 10 years (Sega excluded). The problems with sales were further compounded with some rancid PR moves (if only Sony had to make good on that $1000/console bet...) and a very dry spell for software. Fortunately for Sony, things picked up after August, as the lastest pricing structure seems to be taking hold (though we'll see how well it continues after the holidays, when fewer people are willing to buy big ticket entertainment items). And while most of their exclusive titles failed to set the world on fire as fanboys had hoped, thanks to titles such as Oblivion, Orange Box, CoD4, and Uncharted new PS3 owners are no longer limited to knee-jerk purchases of Resistance. Why not give Sony the Bronze? Simply because it's only looking so good now because it was doing so badly before. It's a bit like BluRay - it really isn't doing very well, but it has that perception because HDDVD isdoing that much worse. And it doesn't help that this turnaround comes at precisely the time when hardware sales normally get a boost. I think we have to be skeptical before deciding that this current cicumstance is in fact, the beginning of a long term trend.
Floppy Disk Award: To the PC, because it's just in another catagory altogether.
