I think the tracking of PSeye move controler is a great way to estimate the sales.
And they accounted 25% for PSEye owners that buy a controler.... this on the other hand might be a bit low in the first week, as someone who did buy the PSEye may be more inclined to try the novelty that is move on release.
However in the long run, it should be even less than 25%, some people will buy 4 controlers to play with friends (heck I had 7 PS1 controlers and 2 multitaps).
On the other hand, if you reallywant an estimate number, you can also track the sports champion sales... as it'd be a bit idiotic to buy move and not this, which is the current main attraction for it. (for info, wii sports was above 50% penetration in japan where it sold separately... with the lack of content for the move, you should assume SChamp is at least at 90% penetration in the first weeks).
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