For those of you who don't know, the Iowa caucuses are the first contests in the US presidential election cycle. The caucus is different from a primary in that it is that is somewhat informal. Iowans gather at precincts and discuss issues and choose a candidate, electing a country delegate who then elects another delegate to cast votes in each party's national convention. Both sets of delegates nearly always cast the same votes as the majority of the voters in a county. Winning the Iowa caucus is considered important because the winner tends to experience momentum going into other primaries. This year, the caucuses are scheduled for January 3rd.
For the Democratic side, there are essentially three candidates:
Hillary Clinton, who is slightly favored to win, is seen as somewhat of an inevitability for the Democratic nomination. Her experience as first lady and senator is largely seen in a positive light although her stands on most issues is to the right of most Democratic voters and large segments of the population see her as cold and calculating. Also, she has among the highest negative ratings of candidates in either party. Clinton is the only Democratic candidate who can lose the Iowa caucuses and come out relatively unscathed, because her huge lead nationally.
Barack Obama is polling nearly even with Hillary Clinton and has a great chance of victory. Obama has a record much in step with the average Democratic voter and draws much support for his position against the Iraq War while other Democratic candidates (Clinton, Edwards, Biden etc.) supported it in its inception and later claimed either it was a mistake or the war was badly mismanaged. Obama could realistically lose in Iowa and then make his comeback in the next contest, which takes place in New Hampshire five days later.
John Edwards, who was the Democratic nomineee for vice president in 2004, has basically lived in Iowa ever since 2006 and is slightly trailing Clinton and Obama in most recent polls. The Edwards campaign was counting on him locking up the "anti-Hillary" vote, but his thunder seems to have been stolen by Obama. Edwards, who seems to have put all of his eggs in the Iowa basket, needs to win here or at least place a close second in order to remain a viable candidate.
None of the other Democratic candidates are placing above single digits in polling -- which would make it nearly impossible and unprecidented to win in Iowa.
I predict: Obama wins with a razor-thin margin over Clinton.
On the Republican side, the contest is a bit murkier with five candidates: John McCain, Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson, Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee all showing significant support.. although there are two candidates who are favored to win the caucus, Romney and Huckabee.
Mitt Romney desperately needs to win the Iowa caucus, as he is showing much higher support here than nationally and outspent all candidates from either party. Until recently, he had a large lead but his changing of positions on social issues (gay marriage, abortion) have hurt him immeasurably and he is counting on momentum from an Iowa victory to propel him into later contests. He has mercilessly attacked his opponents, which appears to have backfired.
Mike Huckabee has enjoyed a booming of support in the past month. His socially conservative positions and religious background have made him very appealing to the Republican base. Contrasted with the other candidates, Huckabee has an affable demeanor and appears to be on-track to win. Negative attacks from Romney and others seems to have no affect on his campaign.
John McCain is trailing Romney and Huckabee in polling, but seems to have greatly increased support in recent weeks. McCain is the best known of the Republican candidates but has alienated a lot of the Republican base for his stance on immigration. If he places respectably here, he has a good chance of winning New Hampshire and the nomination.
Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompsons' campaigns are in a downward spiral and it seems too late to recover. While the Republican base seems to share Giuliani's foreign policy and homeland security viewpoints.. the establishment is completely at odds with his stances on social issues. Fred Thompson's lethargic campaign has met with nearly universal disappointment and will likely not last far past Iowa.
Ron Paul is not a serious contender in Iowa.
I predict: Huckabee wins in a rout.
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Although I'm an Obama supporter, I've tried to be fair in my analysis of all candidates. Who do you think will win the Iowa caucuses? Who do you want to win?
