I voted until Christmas with great reservations.
Gran Turismo 5 is hard to tell. From the last month or so, it's preorders have been fairly steady from 6000/week to 7000/week. I think Gran Turismo 5, just like Metroid: Other M when we have the numbers out will fall below expectations. However, if Sony bundles GT5 and places in a price drop for the PS3, then I could see the numbers skyrocketing from where they were.
Hell, when the preorders from Fallout: New Vegas are just 40,000 behind the latest Gran Turismo game, you know it has been a long time and people have forgotten what made Gran Turismo so magical in the first place. During the PS2 era, we gamers would have found it unconscionable the latest Gran Turismo game would have such weak preorders and be less than 100,000 up on a multi-plat RPG whose predecessor many did not love and demeaned it as "Oblivion with guns." Gran Turismo 5, in many regards, has to recapture the phenomenon that turned Gran Turismo into Sony's flagship brand, then again if it is bundled then new Sony buyers will not have a choice.
Nintendo is the wildcard this holiday season. Both Kirby and DKCR will have better 1st week and 1st month sales than Metroid: Other M. Both are unintimidating, beloved franchises. Kirby not so much, but it's one-of-a-kind art style will appeal to a lot who have never played a Kirby game.
I believe it will be close after Thanksgiving with the 360 and Nintendo running tight for the top spot, but the combination of Black Ops, Fable 3, Red Dead Redemption, and Kinect will push the 360 over the top.
