Hardcore is less than 10% of the market, yeah. So just because it has more hardcore appeal than say Wii and Kinect doesn't mean squat. Its not gonna fail though as it will make Sony money, but in the eyes of the gamers and the press it will be seen as a failure i think, as it wont be popular for more than 6 months or so.
Clones just doesn't work, seriously the only thing that it has that wii doesn't is a camera...







