predictions for 2008

[Fastrabbit09]

wii is pretty easy to predict...demand is there...it's just about predicting Nintendo's production ramp-up

if they don't change it at all, then they'll hit 40.5mil by 12/31/08

so that is your minimum baseline

adjust upward if u think they will increase production

so, if we are assuming they continue to sell out (thus 40.5mil minimum), then we can predict they will follow last year's path and raise the production around june 1, to say 2.5mil...then again around nov 1 to 3mil

so 6*1.8 + 5*2.5 + 2*3 = 29.3mil + 19.2mil = 48.5mil

if nintendo announces more aggressive production increases during the year, then simply adjust the numbers accordingly...figure roughly 5 months to raise production from decision point...

so it'll be easy to adjust predictions this year as we get the new info

i'll go ahead and say that nintendo will slightly beat that above schedule to get the extra 1.5mil consoles shipped and sold to hit the 50mil ww mark by 12/31/08...