Wii now 10m ahead of PS3 - putting this into context / future predictions

[shams]

Wow, some of the replies here are priceless - true "Wii Bingo" all over again. People just haven't learned much from what happened this year.

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Just like with the DS - Nintendo is showing developers "the way" with the Wii. It didn't have that many quality 3rd-party titles out in its first year, but will have 2-3x as many next time - and it will only increase from then.

Have a look at the current Japanese charts. DS games from Square Enix, Level 5, Bandai Namco, etc. All the Wii titles are from Ninty. It will just take time.

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The Wii will easily get to 20m ahead of the PS3. Easily. Sony can't afford to cut prices ANYMORE - the next year will be one of consolidation, software - and maybe software bundling.

 

But what will happen, is there will be less 3rd-party software on the PS3 - and more on the Wii (in terms of ratio anyway - in terms of quantity the PS3 may still increase, as there are plenty of titles still in development).

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Ninty has their biggest success in '07 OUTSIDE of the holiday period. This is where the Wii was really selling steadily, making easy gains over the competition.

Once the holidays are over, the constrained production of the Wii will be much less important. Demand will drop, but actual sales won't drop (unless Ninty starts stockpiling for next year). Many, many people will still be trying to pick up a Wii post-Xmas.

And the real killer-app - WiiFit - hasn't launched in Europe or the US yet. Look at what it has done to reinvigorate the Japanese Wii market. Just wait until it hits Europe - and then the US.

And all this before Mario Kart & Brawl are even launched. Not to mention WiiWare, and everything else coming... 

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Structurally, the market has changed completely from PS1/PS2 days. The Wii is selling to a potential audience that is 5-10x larger than what the PS2 sold to. And the 360/PS3 are competing for exactly the same customers, and splitting their market straight down the middle (50% share each).

Lets see if people have changed their tune 3 or 6 months into next year - and then at the start of '09.